Playoff Paradox

The San Francisco Giants, straight from breaking my heart and beating the Padres on the final day of the season to win the NL West, have gone on a bit of a roll. They beat the Braves in 4 in the NLDS, and currently hold a 3-2 lead on the two-time NL champ Phillies in the NLCS.

All is great in the Bay Area. To wit: a story in SI.com yesterday, per Ann Killion, called "San Francisco is falling in love all over again with the Giants" (emphasis mine):

Or maybe, dude, they have other things to do instead focus on total downers. It may be that lack of obsession and self-flagellation that makes outsiders think Giants fans aren't rabid or savvy. One of the talking points of this postseason has been, "Hey, Giants fans are really into this baseball thing," as though it's somehow surprising. The Braves -- who often don't sell out postseason games -- noticed. The Phillies -- who think they have superior fans -- have noticed. The Giants fans are loud. Unlike their counterparts in Los Angeles, or the fans at the new Yankee Stadium, they stay until the end of games.

Well, sure. Sounds lovely! Giants fans rule! They- erp, what?

From the AP's game story - also found on SI.com, natch - of Game 5 of the NLCS:

Werth's solo homer in the ninth quieted the raucous sellout crowd of 43,713, and many fans began making for the exits even before the final out.

So, which is it? Are Giants fans the bestest baseball rooters on the planet, or are they so pessimistic about their team scoring two runs off probably the sketchiest closer left in the postseason that they hightail it out of a potential pennant-clinching game?

I'm so confused.

Split

Phew.

Too much will be made of J.R. Smith's venture through the circle on the Gasol vs. Billups jump ball late in Game Two. Was it a violation? Of course. Did the Lakers get a ton of calls throughout the game (and Game One)? Ohhhhhhh, you bet your ass.

Some seem to think that David Stern and the NBA, in their not-so-subtle way, want to see Kobe vs. LeBron in The Finals. We know where Nike stands. But what about everyone else?

Leaving the Game Two recaps and analysis to other, more capable blogs, let's look (wishfully) ahead at why Nuggets-Cavs is more compelling than Lakers-Cavs (assuming, of course, Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals was an abberation).

1. Melo vs. LeBron - Why does everyone assume Kobe and LeBron would go head-to-head? Kobe is an aging superstar quickly losing his legs. Sure, he explodes to the hoop for dunks every now and then, but those are few and far between. A capable defender - Shane Battier, or a vastly improving Melo - can force him into a fairly deadly jump shooter. Kobe on LeBron is a gnat on a semi windshield. Melo has shown that he has the tenacity, temerity, quickness and strength to guard the all-around best player in the game. Or, you know, at least try.

It would also make for endless columns about which 2003 top draft pick is going to join D-Wade in the VIP Champions club behind the velvet ropes. And considering the effort the Lakers put forth in last year's Finals, a young, hungry club making their first Finals appearance against a young, hungry club making just their second would be huge.

2. Nene vs. Sideshow Bob - Ok, not quite as compelling as 1. But two big Brazilians with interesting hair going toe-to-toe? One of them with a vast array of low-post moves, the other with a vast array of low-post flops? Just the promise of any hot Brazilian chicks in the stands is good enough. But this matchup is a microcosm of...

3. The Irrestible Force vs. The Immovable Object - The Nuggets may not have had the "best" offense in the league this year, but it's fairly obvious that they have the most balanced attack, and are certainly the most explosive team left in the playoffs. The Cavs were basically one of the top two defensive teams in the league this year. They say defense wins championships. Well, wouldn't this be a fascinating and likely entertaining case study?

4. Denver vs. Cleveland (with apologies to Toby) - The Drive. The Fumble. Two things here: A) Doesn't matter if it was a different sport. B) Cleveland has NOT forgotten. Trust me on this. Never has, never will. Those two AFC Championships, in back-to-back years, were soul-crushing. You think fans in Cleveland - not to mention, oh, EVERYFUCKINGBODY WHO CAN TYPE OR SPEAK INTO A MICROPHONE - will fail to bring this up all the time? And that it wouldn't add an extra level of pizazz?

Am I biased? Of course. But I dare any neutral fan to give me any other matchups, besides the tired Kobe-LeBron hype-a-palooza, with as much flavor as the one I really, really, really hope happens.

C'est La Vie

It's 2 a.m. on a Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. My knee is bleeding. My shoulder hurts. My forearm is sore. I opened a 40 at 1 a.m. I should be going to bed now, but instead I take my four-year-old laptop out and start it up, wait for the bugs and processes and crumbling sounds to subside, watch the excruciating post-game highlights, and lie back so that I can type out this sentence -

FUCK TREVOR ARIZA.

We lost 10-4 tonight. I hate losing. I'd rather swallow Chinese stars than lose. We lost 10-4 tonight. I hate losing. I'd rather move to Kansas and abstain from sex than lose. We lost 10-4 tonight. I hate losing. I hate losing. I hate losing. I hate losing. I hate losing. I hate losing.

Oh. And I broke my brand-new bat. Got one opposite-field single and a walk out of it, then splintered the shit out of it. On a foul ball.

And then I promptly grounded out.

I hate losing.

I trekked home and turned on the game. DVR. Essential. Before I could settle in and eat one half of one half of a $5 footlong, the Nuggets jumped out to a quick lead. They were defending, making the extra pass, knocking down the open shots. They looked incredible.

And yet...

The other shoe would drop. They would outplay the Lakers, outshoot the Lakers (well, maybe not from the foul line), outhustle the Lakers, outbasketball the Lakers, and somehow they would give this game away, just roll it up in a "1985 2: More Tattoos" screenplay and hand it on over with a Zippo to Jack and Donald Sutherland, in his stupid white sunglasses.

There were free throws, there were numerous pissed-away possessions, there were stupid fouls.

And yet...

There was Carmelo Anthony, finally realizing the poetic basketball Adonis he can be if he just fucking wants to. There was Nene, cutting to the hoop for those dunks that start and make you think "he can't finish that with a dunk" and then he throws down a thunderous, one-handed Braided Brazillian special and you think "Well, he is one testicle lighter" before you say "Shit, he fouled out and was ineffective in the second half." There was JR Smith, playing Lord-awful ball, then seemingly turning a switch and hitting some big second-half threes, and then you think "he won't be that bad again." There was Kenyon Martin, making the aforementioned bad fouls, but also being physical, limiting Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to virtual afterthoughts.

Fuck Trevor Ariza.

It was one play out of many, but it was the NBA Jam-esque "nail in the coffin." A steal of an inbounds pass, late in the game, is a playoff staple. Just as Kobe's shots will always find a way to rattle and bounce in. Derek Fisher will always find a way to hit that momentum-swinging three.

It was a horrific, brutal, soul-crushing defeat. And, needless to say, the fitting end to my shit-storm of a day.

But it is not over. This series is not over. I am not an optimistic person, and in fact I happen to think things happen better for my team when I daydream and wish the worst.

And yet...

The Nuggets can play with the Lakers. They can beat them.

And they better. Because I fucking hate losing.

But I hate not finishing an open 40 even more.

NEXT

Seven years.

It's been seven years since one of my Sad Four played for a conference title. Those Avalanche lost 7-0 to the hated Red Wings in one of the more forgettable games I ever remember watching. By my fifth or so beer I wished it was sulfuric acid spiked with cobra venom.

But after finally disposing of the Mavericks, the Lakers loom on the horizon. The defending Western Conference champion Lakers. The Lakers led by Kobe, presumably doin' work. The Lakers run by Phil Jackson, he of the nine titles. Nine.

That's fucking absurd.

This may have come up before in these parts, but if not I'll reiterate. Growing up, I vaguely remember the Doug Moe run-gun-and-fun Nuggets that routinely put up 130, 140 a game (while also giving up nearly that many). The last time the Goldens went this far, I was six. Not exactly in my basketball prime.

By the time I got into my teens, the Nuggets became a laughingstock. My dad and I would watch the games just so we could crack jokes about Blair Rasmussen's hair or Bill Hanzlik's nose. Then 1994 came along, and they became the first #8 seed to beat a #1. Denver got wrapped up in Nugget-mania. And in the second round they met ... the neighboring Utah Jazz.

I remember trying to will the Phons, Dikembe, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (ne Chris Jackson), Robert Pack and the rest back from a 3-0 hole. They almost did, too, taking Utah to a seventh game.

But something funny, and painful, happened after that.

The Nuggets turned to shit.

Having finally gotten on the basketball kick, and getting to an age where I could appreciate a good drop-step or close-out as much as a ginormous dunk, I wanted to see good basketball. So I started following the Stockton-to-Malone pick-and-rolls, the fluid ball movement ending in a Jeff Hornacek three. So the Nuggets became an afterthought.

Did I ever become a Jazz fan? I don't know. I'd like to say I didn't, but I remember owning a Jazz hat. So that's a part of my past, and I can't change it.

But I know that I never stopped being a Nuggets fan, even when they turned into jogging punchlines. And they may fall in the next round - I think they can take the Lakers, to be honest - but even if they do, the Nuggets have had a fantastic season, and are the only positive thing in my sports-rooting life. The Sad Four is now the Sad Three.

They are exciting, they are explosive, and they are fun as fuck to watch. And as of right now, the Nuggets still have a chance to be champions.

Movin' On

For the first time in 15 years, the Nuggets will advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Three things.

1) This was a decisive victory, but let's not start blowing smoke up each other's rectum just yet. This Hornets team was beat up, banged up, and nowhere near the "on-the-precipice-of-greatness" status they displayed last year.

2) When Carmelo decides he wants to take it to the rack, there are maybe a handful of guys on the planet who can stop him. New Orleans had one of them on their roster, but unfortunately they needed the 2003 version of James Posey. The Rockets have 2 of them, but luckily the Nuggets have a better chance of donning the old rainbow jerseys than meeting the Rockets anytime soon.

3) The Nuggets swept the Mavericks this year, and have won 7 of the last 8 against them. This series will not be a sweep. While the defense is much improved, the focus and discipline still wanes from time to time. Dirk and Kidd are savvy veterans, and the Mavericks have a bench capable of keeping up with the Nuggets' (something not seen with the depleted Bees). JR and Carmelo will probably shoot away a few games.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6.

But for now: HOLY FUCK WE'RE MOVING ON I DON'T BELIEVE YOU PINCH ME SUSAN!

Halfway There

God, I love this man. He's from Denver. He knows how to run a team. His name is Chauncey, which, when I was young, was our safe word for Doorknob. (When you fart you have to say the safe word before somebody says 'doorknob'; if you fail, they get to punch you until you touch a doorknob. Beware the dreaded Double Doorknob - you couldn't touch the doorknob on the other side of the same door.)

Speaking of young, it was 1985 the last time the Nuggets held a 2-0 lead in a series. 1985. I was six. Nuggets were little rocks of gold, not buds of weed. Twenty-four years. Wow.

Wagons East! ... or, West! ... or, you know, to the Middle!

I never played fantasy baseball before this year. It felt too artificial to me, like mechanical cow milking pumps or an impassioned John McCain speech. I didn't want to root against my own team. What's the fun in that?

Now, it's all I've got.

The Padres have been done since tax day. I haven't checked a box score in weeks. Fucking weeks, man. For a guy with a baseball tattooed on his arm, that hurts. And now that the playoffs are upon us, I've got to take a rooting interest. I've got to pick a side. Because October is October, no matter whether you're drunkenly cheering for a conglomerate of millionaires or merely drunkenly watching a conglomerate of millionaires.

But whom to choose? Here's a league-by-league (starting with the National League, natch) breakdown of who might get my deep, hoarse, sexy rooting voice come the leaves changing.

National League

Chicago Cubs

Pro: My father's family is from western Illinois, a few hours straight west of Chicago. We used to visit my grandfather and we'd play cribbage (he'd always win because he had a crippled right hand and would always count more points than he won, but I couldn't say shit because he was my grandpa, you know?) and he'd sit in his weathered brown chair with his aforementioned hook hand around a Miller Lite and we'd watch the Cubs and he'd curse them and shout shit and we'd marvel at the eventual great throw by Shawon Dunston in the hole but then he'd go back to yelling obscenities at them and then we'd sing with Harry Caray and damn, it was good. It's been a hundred fucking years, for Chrissakes. If both Soxes can get their fix, the Cubs should, too.

Con: Inevitable disappointment and crushing despair. Thanks, Bartman.

Milwaukee Brewers

Pro: Named after beer. I don't know about you, but that's a huge plus. I've got a gut like a 46-year-old pedophile. And I've got a good buddy who's a Cleveland guy, and seeing CC get a ring would crush his soul worse than if John Elway got his sister pregnant. Which might happen.

Con: If Eric Gagne gets a meaningful out in a World Series and subsequently wins a ring, the world should turn into a giant bowl of tapioca pudding.

New York Mets

Pro: I live in Queens. I've been to Shea, and I've survived without multiple tetanus shots. I have a slight man-crush on David Wright. They're not the Yankees. These (except the latent homosexuality) are all fairly good things.

Con: Have you seen that bullpen in crunchtime? It's like A-Rod forgot to remove his tampon.

Philadelphia Phillies

Pro: I'm hoping to go down to Philly with my girlfriend and some friends on the last weekend of the year to see them finish the season against the Nationals. It would be nice to see a game that means something in a fun stadium. Also, I like the Phillies. I don't know why, I just do. I like the cut of their jib.

Con: Ryan Howard has struck out one time this year for every time a fan in the stands throws an aborted fetus at Pat Burrell because he popped up with two outs and the tying run on second.

St. Louis Cardinals

Pro: Umm ... let's see ... Albert Pujols does something good with those less fortunate, right? And Rick Ankiel did something special?

Con: The Cardinals are the bane of the Padres' existence. They could die in a bus fire and I'd still sleep well at night.

NL West

Pro: [Scene missing]

Con: [Scene missing]

American League

Tampa Bay Rays

Pro: They're the story of baseball this year, bar none. When they got out hot in May and June, everyone said they'd fold. When they lost seven in a row before the break, people nodded in unison. Then they lost half their team, exhumed Rocco Baldelli's shrunken corpse, and ripped off a monster August to assert themselves in not only the AL East, but the AL in general. They pitch, they hit, they field - and they do it all in a stadium that looks like something out of BaseWars.

Con: They're young, and probably don't have the experience to go all the way. But what good is experience? It did me no good when I tried to run for Vice President. Fuck you, Joe Biden. You're not the only one who can plagiarize speech material.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Southern California and Near-Mexico

Pro: They've got Vlad and John Lackey, who looks like a lovable retard. K-Rod will probably break Bobby Thigpen's single-season saves record, thereby permanently and justifiably removing Bobby Thigpen from the public consciousness.

Con: My buddy is an Angels fan. He's also a Sharks fan. He's from outside Toronto. That's just wrong, and punishable by circumcision with plastic second-grade safe scissors.

Boston Red Sox

Pro: I have a number of friends who are Red Sox fans; don't worry, they're not douchetrucks (I've checked, thoroughly). I have a Red Sox hat AND a t-shirt - bandwagon, ho!

Con: Again? Really? Christ, Boston. Let someone else have some fun.

Chicago White Sox

Pro: Ozzie Guillen. If you don't like Ozzie, you either A) don't have a sense of humor, B) are tepidly white and enjoy sex with wine racks, C) are Jay Mariotti, or D) all the above.

Con: A.J. Pierzynski. It's amazing Michael Barrett landed a punch on his chin, seeing as he doesn't have one.

Minnesota Twins

Pro: Great gobs of geeseshit, how do they keep doing it? Can we model our entire government around the Twins' way of doing things? Would that work?

Con: A friend of mine is a Twins fan. That would be nice for him, except for the fact that they've won two championships in his lifetime. Eat a dick, Ben.

New York Yankees

Pr-BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Verdict: In the AL, it's gotta be the Rays. They're young, they're talented, Joe Maddon is a quality dude and most importantly, they did it the right way: through the draft, with shrewd trades (Kazmir, anyone?) and via insightful free-agent signings.

In the NL, I gotta go with the Cubs. Sure, history is nice and all, but I want to see the faces of their fans if they win. It'll be like the Star Wars geek getting his first taste of poon. And that's just good entertainment.

Tonight's Celtics and the Ideal of Perfection

A rant and a rave about basketball as per Game Two:

First, the rant: basketball is such a simple game, people. Too simple. So simple, in fact, coaches and players try to overthink. When the game is at it's best-- like the last seven minutes of the third quarter and the first three minutes of the fourth for the C's-- all the players exploit the weaknesses of a team on the ropes. They attack. They feel the natural flow and they play. No other sport can duplicate this like basketball. This is why the game alternates between exceedingly perfect and horrifically unbearable. Doc Rivers went to his prevent defense (and the players actually ascribed to it) with seven minutes to go against the most dangerous player in the league. Why? Why not attack the rim and continue to beat this team down? Why allow Farmar to score? Why allow Kobe to get his groove? Why allow a team that is beaten a fucking inch-- much less the mile the Celtics gave away?

Not to drive the point home more than I should, but after Leon Powe's dunk and subsequent timeout, who in that place didn't know the Lakers were going to be pissed and come out with a purpose? It's the Finals. If I'm on the Celtics, the first thing out of my mouth is "Don't let up." I just say that over and over. I don't mention the score. I don't feel comfortable. I tell my fellow men that the most dangerous player in basketball is hurting and we want to bury him. I want him dead. I want his family dead. I want his entire lineage destroyed. Here. Tonight. His legacy should have the imprint of our balls on it right fucking now. Seriously.

Instead, the Celts decided to walk the ball up the floor, relax, try horrible lobs and back in/ fade away against guys susceptible to the drive all night. They decided to settle for bad fades with five left on the shot clock after NOT moving the ball. Then, when the energy level depleted and the momentum changed, the ball movement was moot. The deflections came, the panic came and the offense hung from the same ropes supporting the banners in the ceiling.

For a championship-caliber team, this one seems to hate winning. It's still up in the air, fellas. If it's hard to close with a 25 point lead, how hard will it be to do so in LA without the crowd, the calls and the camaraderie? This ain't baseball, and this is a team desperately searching for a closer and Paul Pierce needs help at the end of games.

Now, the raves:

Paul Pierce-- Jesus, even when he makes the big errors-- like the pass that opened up Radmonovich for the travel-dunk-- he makes up for them by blocking a game-altering three with little time left. HUGE PLAY.

Posey-- Nothing but hustle from a man that seemed lost in Detroit.

Rondo-- Inexplicably benched form time to time for man who can't dribble anymore, much less be trusted to run an effective offense, yet he comes in and makes plays when the game is on the line.

Ray Allen-- Shooting like a good shooter again, i.e. using shot selection. You don't have to jack up every open three-- if you aren't comfortable, pass the ball. I love that from him the last few games.

Team Defense-- This is why I love non-break basketball. I like the aforemetioned frustration in basketball-- when a defense (and not coaching) beats a team, it is BASKETBALL. The players decisions are winning and losing a game, not some outsider influence (refs, coaching, slow-down offense WITH SEVEN MINUTES LEFT FOR CHRIST'S SAKE). It's sport at it's peak. When the Celtics were outclassing the Lakers in the third, I got numerous texts and commentary from the guys in the same room saying the same thing: that was a perfect run. They did everything right. it was the purest form of ball-- a mix of athleticism, fundamentals (the SPACING ON THE FLOOR ON BOTH ENDS WAS PERFECT) and luck. It was the culmination of playing the right guys at the right time and not fucking with it. No one was complaining that it was a blowout or saying that the series is boring. They were excited that a team was making an entire quarter-plus look like a work of art. The defense did most of the work. it opened up the offense to operate on every level and allowed Leon Powe to finally get the minutes and attention he deserved.

Leon Powe-- "This was his national coming-out party." --Stan.
For people that understood his potential, Leon Powe delivered the perfect blow to this year's frustrations. With wins come mediocrity. Trust me on this one. When a season goes this well, the team looks away from what worked well and tries to get everyone in on the effort. Thus, this explains the fact that Glen Davis, for awhile, got more important minutes than Leon Powe. Powe deserves 15-20 a game relieving at the 3 and 4 spots and not for his off-the-court storyline. He deserves it because he can punish bench guys, small 3s and slow 4s in the same motion. Davis, and the cavalcade of bench dudes CANNOT. I like Big baby, but Powe is worlds above him. Maybe now, the basketball world gets that. Maybe Doc gets it too (and won't bench him for his lackluster play in the last few minutes like he did after the last five games of the regular season).

Eddie House-- I feel for him. Cassell is damn-near ruining this team in important stretches and he continues to hug and cheer and want. If I'm him, I hold my own press conference and just play tape of Cassell getting blocked by Vujacic (he of the constant complaining-- what a fucktoad). Then I say, "This is five minutes a quarter. Think about it," throw the mic into the feedback position and walk the fuck out with my cock on full display into the bay of cameras. instead, he continues to hug and cheer and want. Good on him. He's still helping.

Tonight, to be sure, the C's had it all, gave it away and then earned it back. That shit won't fly in LA. Not even to steal one. Pierce said they needed to learn a lesson from the fourth quarter. I hope they did, otherwise, they are coming back to Boston down 3-2 against the MVP. Not a good time. I just hope lessons learned translate well, instead of turning into the potential for disaster. Two more, fellas. Two more.

"Don't let up." In such a simple game, the quest for perfection is fleeting, but the ideal of basketball is not. Leon Powe showed us that in Game Two the same way Pierce did in Game One. So simple, to win. So very, very simple.

Playoff (Real) Talk

As per my first round questions, here's the rundown:

Washington hasn't been standing up to LeBron. Nope. Not at all. Calling LeBron Jesus in this series is celebrating Christmas for it's true meaning and not admitting you just wanted presents. Oh, but instead, let us gaze upon the real Jesus-- Chris Paul. He is making the Mavericks his bitch and subsequently making Jason Kidd look old, tired, scared AND disinterested depending on the play:

Posting Paul up-- Disinterested. Nothing but cross-court passes to semi-open shooters of which the length of the Hornets can rattle on closeouts.

Guarding Paul at the beginning of the game: Old. Jason Terry is now, seemingly, the primary defender after the first time Kidd gets beaten.

Guarding Paul at the end of the game: Tired. He's nowhere to be found-- hanging around in case there has to be a double-team, but even then, can't Josh Howard handle it, Coach?

Fourth Quarter: Scared. He knows he hasn't got it.

In fact, the youth on the Mavericks (AKA Brandon Bass) seemed to be the only non-timid factor in the second half. Let's get home and then we'll see. MOTHERFUCKERS, IT'S THE PLAYOFFS. Kidd, get some fire, for fuck's sake. Big guys, block Tyson Chandler the fuck out. Someone act like you know how to run at Peja when he getes open and someone, SOMEONE at least feign to move CP3 away from the middle of the lane at some point. Then again, if it means New Orleans moves on, and I was right? Fuck it, Dallas, let it be.

Marinating on the other points, AI and Melo are, in fact a force. the rest of the team have to be the defensive stoppers. Tonight will be telling, becuase it ain't like the Lakers are stopping anyone either.

Which brings me to a great point-- who exactly thinks this team can win a championship without defense? The Spurs will murder this team in the post, slaughter them at the point and have been hitting every crucial three against a Suns team that has thrown everything at them. I don't know, man. Unless they show me something they haven't yet, I got my doubts.

Oh, and FUCK. The Spurs maybe CAN repeat. Suns need game three and need it to be a 10-15 point game. Confidence, you know?

So, rundown the previous four points:
Mavs ain't clicking.
Spurs look repeatable.
Melo and AI are a force on an iffy team.
Replace LeBron with CP3 until next series.

This could all change, of course. God, I love the playoffs.

Ideas on the NBA Playoffs (round one).

Ah, the NBA playoffs. As I was telling a work-buddy and avid pro-ball enthusiast, this may be the best playoff year since 1986. Might be. That hinges on a few crucial ideas. I'll be revisiting them as they come to fruition.

1) The Mavericks are actually clicking. Yes, they destroyed some teams at the end and the post-injury Dirk has been intense and fear-worthy. The big question (to me) is, whether they can beat the Hornets four times. The hybrid Mavs, half-running/half-set, are going to have to adjust to Chris Paul more than the Hornets adjusting to Jason Kidd. Can anyone guard him? Are they going to be able to close the lanes with deflections or close the post without getting beat by a good cutting team?

The Mavs are playing well on offense, sure, but they have problems with good point guards. Kidd can't defend Paul, so Terry and Howard will have to limit his options once he penetrates. If they can do that fairly effectively, we got a seven-game series on our hands.

2) LeBron James is Jesus Christ. If this is true and he can single-handedly win a round in the playoffs AND challenge the Celtics with the worst fourth-seed in recent history (all of this without throwing in the towel with Kobe-style frustration), then the East will be much more interesting than people think. Philly is playing well enough to steal one in Detroit, LeBron is putting up the best non-MVP numbers I can think of and Boston is going to be scrutinized on every play the make or don't make.

The most interesting thing about the East? Cleveland is just as good as they were last year. Seriously. This was the Finals team. LeBron is still there, folks. Hughes was hurt against San Antonio and still jacked up tons of shots and Mike Davis (my least favorite coach in this league) was too stupid to replace him with Daniel Gibson. Instead, he played them both. Take Hughes' shots away, give them more Boobie, and place better rebounders/defenders in over Gooden. This is not a great team. It's not. However, it is LeBron's team. And he is great. Great enough to beat the Pistons down last year and scary, considering I'm a Celts fan. They will beat the Wizards if they don't turn the ball over a ton and then LeBron gets a chance to tame the giant. Oh shit.

3) The Spurs cannot repeat. If the Suns beat them up (a la the Red Sox losing to the Yankees but baseball fans knowing the Yanks had no chance in the next round) and they still advance, the next round will be even harder. They can be exposed. The trick is whether or not Nash, Amare and Shaq are enough to do it. Shaq has to contend with Timmy, Udoka AND Kurt Thomas. He's older, slower and less likely to dominate in big games and the one problem no one seems to talk about? A lost step for the Spurs was made up in shrewdness when they picked up another big body before the trading deadline. Bowen, Thomas, Udoka, and Duncan are defenders. Last year, in a championship year, they had one less body to handle the big guys.

This is the thing: this series will come down to guardplay. Shaq vs. the corps of bodies, Timmy versus Amare-- all secondary to the fact that someone, ANYONE has to stop the guards for San Antonio. Nash is a worthless defender-- as has been chronicled-- and Raja Bell is only one man. Manu and Tony Parker will run wild. If the Suns don't find some toughness at the point or some deflections once the guards penetrate, they aren't going to make it to seven games.

That said, if the Spurs make a repeat appearance in the Finals, this will be a playoffs of complaint rather than a celebration of good basketball at a peak time.

Melo and AI are going to be a force whether they play defense or not. People are fully asleep on the idea that the Nuggets are a tough out. Allen Iverson hasn't been in the playoffs in years, Melo has something to forget about, and these guys can SCORE. They have shooters, slashers and a machine at the two-guard who is just as hungry (if not hungrier) than any one of the three Celtic superstars.

No, I don't think the Nuggets can beat the Lakers, but I do think they can steal one or two at home and extend the series. Lamar Odom, an injured Bynum and a Kobe less than a year removed from a temper-tantrum that alienated him further from NBA fans (somehow) do not a champion make-- until next year, maybe. Yeah, they'll carve up the Nuggets for 115-120 a night, but it's possible that they will give up 116-121 at least twice.

I mean think about it: the Suns are playing the Spurs IN THE FIRST ROUND. The Nuggets-Lakers series could see 900 points scored in five games if Melo is allowed by law to drive to the games. The Hornets could be one of the best young teams in history and they have to play a team that has the most to prove (alongside the Suns) in this entire playoffs (yeah, I said it). The Celtics are fielding the hungriest team in NBA history with a statistically perfect defense. LeBron is lurking about. Kobe is too.

And on top of it all, AGENT ZERO IS BACK. YYYYYYYEEEEESSSSSSSSS. Get ready. This is gonna be awesome.

East picks (R1 only):
Cleveland in six.
Orlando in six.
Detroit in five.
Boston in four.

West picks (R1 only):
San Antonio in seven.
New Orleans in seven.
Utah in six.
Los Angeles in six.

All-Time Fast-Break team.

(EDIT: 6th man included.)

Today at workjob number one, I got into a discussion about the all-time greats and run-first basketball. My friend Laurence asked for my all-time fast-breakbasketball team members-- one that was capable of winning games and was aesthetically pleasing to my love of basketball. I'll share his first and then mine (with explanations and team analysis).

First off, though, this post came at the brink of a must-win game for the eighth seed in the West. I know it's baseball season and all and I have allegiances to my favorite team of all time (oh to be .500 for the Yanks series), but I could't help but get pumped for the Warriors-Nuggets. No, they didn't play good defense and no, neither of them have seen an off-balance shot they don't like, but think of the offensive talent level in this game: Iverson, "Ran"thony, the Baron, Cap'n Jack, Monta (my newest favorite player in the universe not named Garnett) and the rebound machine that is Andris Biedrins.

The difference in this game (to me) will be the fact that these teams are outstanding offensive rebounding teams. I tried to emulate this on my "points" team. While I enjoyed the game, I was covertly thinking of how badly I'd like to see my fantasy fast-break team play together.

Now, to the point. The only rules here are: starters and a sixth man, you should assume each of these players is in their prime no matter when they played, defense is no matter and we decided to put together two different squads no matter how good the picks were. Also, he got to pick first, so I didn't get Jordan or Magic.

Laurence's team: Isaiah Thomas (PG), Akeem (before the H) (C), Clyde Drexler (F), Magic (SG), Worthy (PF), Gervin (6).

My team:

Steve Nash (PG)-- No one runs the point on a run-first team like him. No one. I'm dead serious. I considered a ton of point guards from Cousy to Isaiah as well, but Nash is the man I want running a fast-break team throughout history forever (other than Magic-- fucking second pick). This makes the rest of the team click.

Amare Stoudamire (PF)-- Sticking with the new kids here, I love the unselfish nature of Amare on the break, the monstrousness in the short-half-court set and the offensive rebounds galore. Everything about this man is scoring in bunches if Nash and he are on a good level. To be sure, he is one of the greatest running power forwards the game has seen. Ever.

Wilt Chamberlain (C)-- He scored 100 in a game. 100. Points. He can run, he passes to cutters well, and he always finished. How much better can you get?

Dominique Wilkins (SF)-- Here's where I will get slaughtered, probably. Think about it, though. He slashes, he fills lanes and he has speed and power. He finished well. He was always a guy that got good separation for quick shots. Here's the thing-- he's a cutter. He always found the basket
and knew how to score when he got there-- with or without the ball. On top of all of that, he could handle the ball at any point. Putting him and Nash together put towo certified ballhandlers in charge of a break and two guys that could find separation all over the floor.

Earl Monroe (SG)-- At first I considered Pete Maravich for a purely stylistic understanding of fast break basketball, but "The Pearl" stood out. In the films I have seen of him (most recently in "Black Magic," which was awesome), he was a pure passer, shooter and an amazing runner. He wasn;'t the fastest man on the court, but he got to his slots quickly on the break and had moves unthinkable.

Adrian Dantley (6th Man)-- Is there a need to explain this? He's a genius who deserved a championship. A hall-of-fame player with the word RUN written all over him.

Monroe, being the final piece of my starting squad, brings it all together. You have three ball-handlers, two rebounders, a scorer at center, a monster power forward, a pass-first point guard who can shoot the three lights-out, and my favorite shooting guard of all-time. Monroe is the intangibles guard-- he has the flash when necessary, the ability to hit the midrange jumper at will and the overall mentality of the best player on the court at any given moment. 'Nique starts to struggle or lags off and Monroe picks up the slack. He can trail or lead the break, has a good entry pass for the bigs inside and knows how to get tot he open spots if the quick score doesn't come. He's the guy I was most proud of picking.

What about your all-time fast-break team? Let's get some commentary, people.

Next up? All-defense team.