Showing posts with label Bullpen Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bullpen Watch. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Escape Engine the 4th


(Editor's note: Escape Engine will be a series of baseball features on this site. The first month of the series will focus on bullpens.)

The fast rise and fall of a bullpen is a tragic thing to watch. A month of fantastic pitching could just as easily crumble as continue, as anyone knows, but to predict such a fall is divine. Since sportswriters mention bullpens more than they actually talk about them, we've decided to devote a little time to some contenders' bullpens (with little focus on the closer, since they get enough airtime already). This week we've focused on the Boston Red Sox, currently 8 games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East at 56-37, which is also the best record in all of baseball. We have them winning the AL pennant, if you must know.

Let me preface this by saying that this is a punishment post. Well, not really. Aside from my obvious allegiances, I do root for some AL teams, and the Sawx are definitely one of them. The reason is, quite simply, I hate the Yankees. Is there any better reason to do anything than pure, vitriolic hatred? Adolf Hitler says no. FOX News says no. PETA says no. And if there's three people/organizations I aspire to be like it's Hitler, FOX News and PETA.

Anyway, at a little get-together at a Mets game almost a month (?!?!) ago, Business or Leisure? and I had a little bet. I took the A's, he took the Mets, and the loser would have to do the Escape Engine for the other's team. The Mets won 9-1. So, technically I lost, but not really.

Oh, we were supposed to race pantsless or something, too. That idea got scrapped pretty quick.

Onward and upward, friends.

Land of rising suns, falling ERAs: Remember the fervor over the Daisuke sweepstakes? The incessant coverage, the back-door dealings, the sealed envelope bids, the puffy jacket at the airport? Seems like eons ago, doesn't it? Now we're just past the halfway point in the season, and while Dice-K's been good, he's not even the best Japanese pitcher born in a town with the letters T-O-K-Y-O on the team. That would be Hideki Okajima of Kyoto, the far less-known of the two overseas signings. All he's done is win the fan's vote for the All-Star game while posting an absurd 0.79 ERA and a sick 0.86 WHIP. A lot of foreign pitchers -- especially Japanese and Asian ones -- have unconventional windups and deliveries, and Okajima is no different. The best part about his, though, is that when he releases a pitch he looks down at the ground. His head whips, flings violently down, and he's not looking anywhere near the plate. It's a fun thing to watch, but it must be a bitch to hit against. No matter, because he's got good stuff that he locates well and keeps down in the zone. Head fling or not, that's how you get badass numbers.

Late innings: I was going to make a joke about Mike Timlin being 40, but he's actually 41. Wow. Has anyone ever seen him without a shirt on? I'm guessing his arm is connected to his shoulder by warm Twizzlers and plumber's tape. Don't get me wrong -- I love the Bulldog (he looks like my friend Dave) and he's still putting up respectable numbers (3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a .260 BAA) -- but at some point the ol' truck is going to blow a gasket. He's already been on the 15-day DL twice this year. Brendan Donnelly has been out for about a month now, and Manny Delcarmen's been up and down between Pawtucket and the big club all year. He's only thrown about thirteen innings this year, but he's done a decent job.

Middle innings and long relief: Joel Pineiro. The words roll off the tongue like "syphilis" and "asphyxiation." He used to be a starter. Not anymore. Now he's a mediocre reliever with numbers that don't equate to his four-million-dollar salary. What's my boy going to be when he grows up? "No, no son. Neural surgery is hard work. You've got to go to school for twenty-something years, work really hard, and look at brains. Don't you want to work in middle relief and make five big ones a year while you get lit up like the Vegas strip?" An ERA of 5+ and a K-BB ratio of barely better than 1-1 isn't really getting the job done, especially for someone who once won 16 games.

Long-term Eye: With Okajima setting the table for Jonathan Papelbon to clean up, there may be no better one-two punch in the league (aside from Elijah Dukes roughing up his nanny). Timlin still continues to plug away, but the return of Donnelly will be key. He's been through pennant races and the rigor of the post-season, and will assuredly mentor the younger guys. Plus Jon Lester could come back in the next month or two and, if Curt Schilling ever gets back to form, that would put either Julian Tavarez or Kason Gabbard into a long relief role. That would give Terry Francona more options, and would increase the possibility of Tavarez throwing the bullpen catcher into the stands. And that's always a plus.

Fun Fact: Timlin really does look like my buddy Dave. I promise. Once I track down a picture, it's on.

Projection: This team doesn't have many holes, but middle relief could be one. Could be. The Sox might try to make a minor deal toward the deadline, but I think they'll go to the party with who brung 'em. So far, the starters have been solid enough and getting deep enough that it really hasn't mattered. With a handful of solid single-inning-eaters like Timlin, Javier Lopez, Kyle Snyder and Okajima, the bridge to Pap-smear looks like a relatively short one that's easy to cross.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Escape Engine No. 2

(Editor's note: Escape Engine will be a series of baseball features on this site. The first month of the series will focus on bullpens.)

The fast rise and fall of a bullpen is a tragic thing to watch. A month of fantastic pitching could just as easily crumble as continue, as anyone knows, but to predict such a fall is divine. Since sportswriters mention bullpens more than they actually talk about them, we've decided to devote a little time to some contenders' bullpens (with little focus on the closer, since they get enough airtime already). This week we've focused on the Detroit Tigers, currently 1/2 game ahead of the Indians in the AL Central at 24-14.

(Ed. Note 2: I refuse to pony up for MLB.tv, so I watch what YES, SNY, ESPN, TBS and FOX decide to show me. Feel free to let me know where I am wrong in the comments.)

For years there was a glorious symbiotic relationship in Detroit. As the domestic car market crumbled under the weight of an efficient, affordable, and eco-friendly wave of foreign vehicles, the city fell apart. People had to decide if they wanted to pay the gas bill or go see a historically inept baseball team that hadn't done anything since Reagan was talking about star wars - and not the movie. No butts in the seats means no money spent, no money circulating means no buying cars - a vicious cycle turning like so many Goodyears on Hondas, Toyotas, and Nissans.

But then they got a few things that make you a contender. A chain-smoking, cantankerous, brilliant manager. Some quality bats. And arms - lots and lots of arms.

8th and 9th: Although it says above we wouldn't talk about closers, how can you not talk about Todd Jones? He didn't sell his soul to the devil - he put a gun to his balls and threatened to blow off the demonmaker if he didn't turn him into a successful closer. Hell, Jamie Moyer wonders how he gets people out. But he does. Joel Zumaya, the Juggs-busting Jimmy Page wannabe, went out 10 days ago with a strained finger; he had surgery a week ago and will be out 2-3 months. Losing a 101-MPH fastball usually isn't a recipe for success, but Jim Leyland has performed miracles before. In Zumaya's place steps Fernando Rodney, who has pitched pretty well as of late. He got lit up in the first two outings of the year to the tune of four earned runs in 1.2 innings, but has settled down lately. Crafty veteran (that term is used very, very loosely here) Jose Mesa and journeyman Bobby Seay provide righty-lefty matchups and mild comfort.

Middle Relief: Jason Grilli has virtually the same stats from his last two outings. They are: 2.1 IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER; 2.1 IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER. Yeesh. A 7+ ERA and 1.84 WHIP aren't going to keep you your job for long as the top righty out of the pen. Wilfredo Ledezma, the lefty, has been up-and-down all year, but lefties are hitting .387 against him with a .940 OPS. To remedy this, the Tigers called up another southpaw, Tim Byrdak, on Sunday, and he then promptly threw two shutout innings against the Red Sox. Kenny Rogers is likely to be out for a few months, and Jeremy Bonderman might miss a start because of a blister problem, but when it comes down to it, this excellent Tigers rotation is likely to give you quality starts night-in, night-out. That means these three guys - Grilli, Ledezma, and Byrdak - merely need to be average and not pour the proverbial gasoline on the fire (not to be confused with the flame tattoo on Zumaya's forearm).

Long-term Eye: This all boils down to one question: Can Zumaya come back, be dominant again, and stay healthy? He's been groomed to take over the closer role for a while now, until the "If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It" thinking gets hit by a speeding Dodge Viper. The man truly is scary. Jose Mesa, however, is scary only if you're a Tigers fan and he comes into the game in the 7th with Detroit up 5-4.

Fun Fact: Todd Jones threw the last pitch at Tiger Stadium in 1999. It's just now reaching the plate.

Projection: A healthy trio of Jones, Zumaya and Rodney makes this a top-third group. But there is plenty of potential here for pitfall, and Leyland might want to test the strength of those vines before he swings over the alligators (sorry, love a good Atari reference). The Tigers' rotation and offense should keep them near the top of the AL Central - our pick to win it, actually - but if that fails, this group is the one that might get the (strained) finger pointed at them.

Friday, May 04, 2007

Escape Engine No. 1


(Editor's note:Escape Engine will be a series of baseball features on this site. The first month of the series will focus on bullpens.)

The fast rise and fall of a bullpen is a tragic thing to watch. A month of fantastic pitching could just as easily crumble as continue, as anyone knows, but to predict such a fall is divine. Since sportswriters mention bullpens more than they actually talk about them, I've decided to devote a little time to some contenders' bullpens (with little focus on the closer, since they get enough airtime already). This week I've focused on the Milwaukee Brewers, currently 1/2 game out of being the best team in baseball at 18-10.

(Ed. Note 2: I haven't seen everyone in action, though I watch an inordinate amount of baseball. Feel free to let me know where I am wrong in the comments.)

Milwaukee, Algonquin for "The Good Land" is not really the surprise of the league, per se, with their young talent, but what is surprising is how their pitchers have responded to their close games-- a canker sore for them in the past.

8th and 9th: Derrick Turnbow, once considered a future fantasy stud relinquished the closer job to ineptness. Former fantasy flop Francisco Coredero now makes his bed in the ninth inning after foibling the Rangers hope for an average bullpen last year. The weirdest part about this is the adjustment Turnbow made. With the pressure of the game alleviated, Turnbow has returned to the form that once had Baseball Tonight salivating. He has a 1.80 ERA and 1 save in 10 innings. Not to be exceeded by some upstart, Cordero is 10 saves in early on with a nothing ERA and 19-7 K to BB count. The change of league seems to be doing him well. If history is any indication, however, these two won't hold these numbers. However, the longer they stand together as this kind of force, the less likely those meltdowns are apt to show.

Middle Relief: There hasn't been much need, really, in this young season. After a month, this may be one of the better rested bullpens in the division. Former Dodger Elmer Dessens has been less than fantastic in 11 innings, but the offense has proven prodigious, so his 1.73 WHIP and 4.91 ERA haven't hurt the Brewers all that much yet. Brian Shouse is effective enough (8 IP, 4 BB, 1.38 and a 3.38 ERA) in non-quality at-bats to be a righty with some potential. He's seemingly a one-inning guy. One of the genuinely good pitchers thus far is Matt Wise with an ERA under 3 and 5 holds thus far on the season. He is currently tied for eighth in the league in Holds. If his impressive start continues to hold a bridge to the Turnbow/Cordero regime, this could be a strong bullpen when it counts. Carlos Villenueva has 4 holds and has pitched in upwards of 4 innings in games making him a valuable innings eater on his way to two wins. His ERA (3.18) is low, but his WHIP (1.53) could stand to be a little lower. Some of that WHIP is walks, since batter are hitting .208 against him his last seven games (including the 4-inning game).

Long-term Eye: This is a threatening bullpen. If Dessens can improve, the bridge to the (for now) lights out 8th and 9th guys will be that much better. With a combined talent range like this, I could see the Brewers continuing the hot April they've had of the starters work their magic. The offense will be there, most likely. There are down spots. Is Villenueva this good? The numbers suggest so over the past couple of years with a combined .218 BAA over 70+ innings). How long can Cordero be effective? Is Turnbow still a closer in the making? How long until the last two questions rear their ugly heads?

Fun fact: Did any one of these guys ever get drafted? The entire core of middle relief were undrafted. Doesn't baseball have like sixteen drafts? Wow. Cordero, Villenueva, Shouse? No draft. Maybe this is more common than I realize. Fun facts are usually stupid anyway. Sorry to waste your time.

Projection: This will be one of the best bullpens in the National League when all is said and done. The Brewers are our pick to win the Central, and the playoffs will truly test this group.